Since the last update in this series on July 26, the number of new weekly Covid-19 cases continued its rise into new territory with almost 4000 new cases. On none of the most recent 7 days was the daily increment fewer than 500, with a maximum of 765 last Saturday July 31. The weekly total was however less than that of the preceding week when the total exceeded 4500 new cases. I do not know if the peak days with 977 and 833 cases on July 19 and 24 included targeted testing initiatives at prisons or long-term residential facilities that would artifactually drive the case count up as it did on May 5th. While there is some hope that the interruption in the current upward climb in the 7-Day average of new cases represents a pause to a new and higher “plateau,” I believe it is too soon to tell. Governor Beshear issued an executive order to require face coverings on July 9. This met with legal and community pushback from some quarters. More recently on July 27, bars were ordered closed for two weeks and restaurant service was dialed back to 25% capacity indoors. It is too soon to determine the effectiveness of these measures as currently complied with.
While a partial report yesterday (Sunday) was lower with 463 announced new cases, this is high for a Sunday. Today (Monday) is also historically a low-count day so It is likely that we will need to see what happens during the catch-up reporting from the public health districts later this week. National reports note that the explosion of new cases in the South and West is now spreading to the Midwest– and that includes us and our neighboring states. I would like to think we will be largely spared, but not if we hide our heads in the sand or pretend it is safe to open stadiums, tracks, schools, or festivals without a demonstrable way to prove that it is safe to do so, or a social apparatus to deal with the inevitable outbreaks that will occur.
I have been updating KHPI’s online Covid-19 Tracker daily with Kentucky’s numbers and will do so again with this evening’s announcements. I invite readers to help me analyze the interactive data visualizations. Below are graphics that are current as of Saturday August 1, but will be updated again this evening.
This first is shows the aggregate cases and deaths since the first case was discovered in Kentucky. With the weight of 30,000 cases behind it, any short-term change in the trajectory of the lines will not jump out at us, but the overall rising rate of new cases since early July is well established.
Continue reading “The coming week’s Covid-19 counts in Kentucky will be of critical importance.”