How many tent revivals does it take to alter the trajectory of an epidemic?
When Kentuckians did the hard things necessary as we entered the great unknown of a new viral disease, we altered the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in our Commonwealth. If we had remained on the initial exponential curve we were experiencing, the entire state would have been infected in a matter of weeks. We have met and passed that challenge– for now. Governor Beshear, Public Health Commissioner Stack, I, and all the rest of the hopeful Kentuckians would like to have believed that the number of new cases would steady, if not decrease altogether. Looking at the reported data and given what I understand to be the definitions of the individual data elements, I believe that the number of new cases is on the rise again. Saturday’s new cases numbered 310, the highest since May 5 when an institutional outbreak was recognized and reported all at once. Indeed the 7-Day rolling average of new cases daily has never been higher than it is now. Reported deaths or hospitalizations have not been rising substantially, but those numbers take longer to show up in reports. Other states are also reporting upticks in their case counts as society opens up.
Are rising cases the simple result of more testing?
The reporting of tests done daily remains erratic. Even though “Tests” now include both viral RNA and patient antibodies, the 7-Day average of Kentucky tests reported daily has actually been decreasing since the first of June. (See below.) The Basic Reproductive Rate (the average number of people that a given case will infect in turn) has been rising. The percent of daily tests that are positive has not changed much. Based on publicly available numbers, I cannot agree yet that the increase in cases is explainable by more testing.