New Cases Covid-19 Soaring in Kentucky at Rate Doubling Every 4 Weeks.

If nothing changes could hit 5000 new cases per day by the end of December based on trend since October 1.

It may not make too much sense to update the Kentucky Covid-19 epidemic in midweek because it takes the remainder of the week for statewide reporting to catch up from the slow or absent reporting of Sundays and Mondays. I make an exception today even before Wednesday’s reporting because things have been so bad here, nationwide, and in most other countries that have the infrastructure necessary to count cases at all.  I am also moved by considerations that our hospital and their preexisting ICU beds are now truly threatened by sequential record-breaking days since reliable accounting began in May.

Brief Review with Charts: 

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Proposed Purdue Pharma DOJ Settlement Emphasizes Role in Opioid Epidemic.

FDA and Medicare Records reveal Sackler-Associated Drug Companies as Leaders in Controlled Substance Markets.  

In the Pre-Covid Era, almost every day’s newspaper would contain at least one article about our last-worst epidemic of opioid abuse.  Since Covid-19 justifiably soaks up much of our attention, the infrequent article about opioids now takes me by surprise.  The odd article that leaks through reminds us that the opioid tragedy has not gone away.  Indeed, as the desperation attendant to Coronavirus spreads, there is every reason to believe that the fellow-traveler of opioid abuse is blossoming also.  The current news environment has allowed the progress of previously reported high-profile litigation against an assortment of opioid manufactures, marketers, and sellers to proceed in the relative background.  

Last week, the United States Department of Justice announced that one arm of litigation came to a head when Purdue Pharma LP pled guilty to three felony charges related to its marketing and distributing of OxyContin.  The settlement agreement (subject to bankruptcy court approval) includes a payment of $8.34 Billion, but to whom or what is not clear to me.  Since Purdue declared bankruptcy, it seems unlikely that anywhere near that amount will ever be paid.  Companies don’t go to jail. Even billions of dollars can be an tolerable cost of doing business in Big Pharma.  As part of a broader overall settlement, the Sackler family owners of Purdue resolved a number of additional civil charges for $225 Million. Some commenters have expressed opinions that the Sacklers and Purdue are getting off easy.  That may well be so, but the Justice Department’s announcement notes that “the resolutions do not include the criminal release of any individuals, including members of the Sackler family, nor are any of the company’s executives or employees receiving civil releases.”  In my opinion that is eminently proper. 

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Covid-19 Pandemic Rounding The Curve In Kentucky In The Wrong Direction!

New Cases.
There is nothing good to be found in this End-of-Week report bracketed by Saturday’s released numbers. The 1732 unique new cases announced yesterday are by far the highest for a single day (save for the catch-up reporting of 1500 cases earlier in the month not assigned to a specific previous day).  The 8683 unique new cases of the week leapfrogged over the previous weekly high by 1239 cases– a 17% increase.  With 26,640 new October cases as of Saturday the 24th (and the month not even done yet) we already have 30% more cases than in all of September.  Both the 7-Day and 14-Day rolling averages of new cases are also at record highs for the year. Since Sept 1, the aggregate total of new cases has been doubling every 5-6 weeks, a rate that is now worsening.  

New cases Covid-19 per day as of 10-24-20.
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Another Increasingly Bad Covid-19 Week in Kentucky. Is it Grim Yet?

There is not much positive to say about last Saturday’s KHPI end-of-week update. New reported daily cases set new daily record highs four days in a row. Discounting the approximately 1500 Fayette County cases that had been unreported prior to last week, a new weekly high was also reached. This rise in new reported cases can also be visualized by inspection of the 14-Day rolling average of daily cases– also at a new high. (The 7-Day rolling average of new cases was so distorted by low reporting over the 3-day holiday weekend and the bolus of 1500 delayed cases, that this previous helpful metric was invalid.) Reported deaths last week reached the highest levels since the week ending September 12. That latter week reflected new infections from July suggesting we should anticipate increasing deaths in the coming weeks independent of additional new cases. Confirming that the increases in new cases and deaths are real, reported hospital and ICU admissions for Covid-19 disease are at their highest since the beginning of the epidemic. All of these markers of disease spread and impact are going in the same (wrong) direction.

You can inspect a full panel of interactive data visualizations on KHPI’s Covid-19 Update portfolio which is generally updated daily on Tableau Public.

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